War with Iran may be escalating or it may
not be, we don’t know. But what I can tell you is that last night, as I say, they started an impromptu livestream. As we learned that
Iran had attacked two U S bases in Iraq. It was feeling a whole hell of a lot. Like that
evening, uh, in 2003, when George W. Bush was president announcing that we had started
the war with Iraq, Iran has retaliated to Donald Trump’s assassination of the Uranian
Koons leader Kaseem Sola Moni, uh, with missile attacks on two U S bases in Iraq. This includes
the Al Assad base and IR bill, which is another air base. This was very much, uh, starting
to feel like the beginning of the Iran war. Although it’s possible that it won’t happen
and I’ll explain all of the possibilities momentarily. It has not yet escalated in that
way. But as I watched the videos of the missiles last night, seeing the live news coverage
brought me back to the start of the Iraq war. Right now we are not aware of any casualties.
Whether Donald Trump now does or does not react is a material irrelevant foreign policy
decision. But it’s also related to some pretty clever
strategy by Iran. Thanks to Donald Trump being so triggerable and so arrogant and so egoistic.
And I’m going to explain that because that really Trump’s personality could be the one
factor that determines whether this becomes the Iran war or whether this stops here. So
let’s go through this step by step because it’s really important to understand the comings
and goings because this could be an OnRamp to full scale war or it could be an off ramp
from further escalation. So Donald Trump ordered the assassination of the Uranian codes leader.
We’ve already covered this Kaseem Soleimani who was assassinated without congressional
authorization, which Donald Trump previously claimed. Presidents do need to have. Iran
threatened to retaliate, and Donald Trump went to Twitter and said, if you do, we will
escalate. Remember Donald Trump tweeting quote, Iran is talking very boldly about targeting
certain USA assets as revenge for our reading the world of their terrorist leader who had
just killed an American and badly wounded many others. Not to mention all of the people he had killed
over his lifetime, including recently hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking
our embassy and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Most of this appears to
be untrue. By the way, Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve
as a warning that if Iran strikes any Americans or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian
sites summit, a very high level and important to Iran and the Iranian culture and those
targets and Iran itself will be hit very fast and very hard. The USA wants no more threats.
So Donald Trump among threatening war crimes, they’re pre committed to further action if
Iran retaliates. So Iran did retaliate. Two strikes yesterday hitting two different military
bases in Iraq, although seemingly without any casualties launching more than a dozen
missiles claiming that every missile hit its target despite not killing anybody. Now, this was deliberate in the sense that
it was calculated. This was a sophisticated move by Iran. If Donald Trump does not want
further escalation, Iran didn’t kill anybody. There are some reports alleging that these
attacks were communicated ahead of time through a proxy to the United States to ensure that
there would be no casualties at these bases so that Iran can get a retaliation on paper,
save face as the case may be without actually killing anybody and without forcing Donald
Trump to escalate further if he chooses not to. And in fact, Iran’s foreign minister Javad
Zarif who also tweets foreign policy said quote Iran took and concluded proportionate
measures in self defense under article 51 of you on charter targeting base from which
cowardly armed attack against our citizens and senior officials were launched. We do
not seek escalation or war, but we’ll defend ourselves against any aggression. This is actually an olive branch to Trump
in the form of a possible off ramp if Trump actually does not want more escalation. This
is a move by Iran that allows Trump to stop here because Iran didn’t kill anybody. This
Iran, uh, this Iranian attack does not force Donald Trump’s hand. If Donald Trump is determined
to escalate, he’s going to do it anyway. Now this is where it gets bizarre. Yesterday in
the midst of all this, Donald Trump tweeted during the livestream that we were doing quote
all is well, missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment
of casualties and damages taking place. Now, so far so good. We have the most powerful
and well-equipped military anywhere in the world by far. I will be making a statement
tomorrow morning. This goes way too far. This is way too casual. It’s way too upbeat. It’s almost like, Oh cool, we’re going to
have bagels and smoked salmon as well because this is all just so fun and we’re all having
a great time. I was actually wondering whether this was even Donald Trump or someone else
may have taken his phone and tweeted this. All is well, is the phrase of someone who
either is in way over their head is completely intimidated by the more sophisticated strategic
decisions being made by the Uranians, uh, or is simply gaslighting people. My understanding
of Donald Trump’s personality and ego make it very difficult to imagine that he won’t
want to retaliate, but my sense is that there are people around Donald Trump, including
probably secretary of defense, Mark Esper, who do not want an escalation and recognize
that it is not actually necessary here. Now, let’s tail back to the tactics and strategy
piece of all of this. I do believe that if Donald Trump does not do further military
hostilities, that Iran likely will also not do anymore. I I, that seems reasonable. The thing about
Iran is that much differently than Iraq. Iran, cyber warfare capabilities are significant.
Even if a Ron’s military does nothing more in the military realm, the cyber realm becomes
a real possibility and one that Donald Trump’s administration has not taken seriously throughout
the presidency of Donald Trump. Key takeaways. Number one, this does not have to be the start
of world war three, as some are calling it or of the Iran war as others are calling it.
But it depends on Donald Trump. And that’s horrifying the, that the decision about whether
or not the United States enters a major military conflict where they far better equipped opponent
than Iraq. I’m not saying they’re better equipped than the U S they are better equipped than
Iraq. Uh, this, uh, particularly that that decision rests on bogus political grounds.
Um, uh, really primarily to help Donald Trump be reelected and distract from impeachment. It is horrifying that that’s who and what
this depends on. Now, I want to hear from people in my audience, people who watch people
who listen, who want war with Iran. Okay. Yesterday during our livestream we had about
10,000 live viewers and save a few obvious trolls and people who were joking, nobody
says that this is a good idea. So if you support war with Iran, not because you think it’ll
help Trump get reelected, but if you think that there is a worthwhile mission in going
to war with Iran, tell me why you support it, what the targets would be, what the goal
of the of this would be. How would we know if we’ve won, uh, and how long you expect
it to take. Okay. I want to hear from you if you are in that camp. Lastly, this is all
about politics and it’s all about Donald Trump. So let’s talk about that. Does a war with
Iran actually helped Donald Trump? We know that the assassination of Kaseem Solemani
was a political ploy to distract from being an impeached president and to start creating
a pretext to justify his own reelection. There’s a rule of thumb, there’s a conventional wisdom
that Wars are good for incumbent presidents. It allows them to say, let’s not change horses
midstream. It frames them as more presidential than their opponent because not only are they
running for reelection, they’re also managing a war. So historically a military conflicts
have actually been pretty good for the reelection of presidents. But will it work in this case?
It’s not clear to me that in this case it would help Trump, especially because there
seems to be little support for attacking Iran. So I want to hear from you about that as well.
Would a war with Iran actually help Donald Trump in terms of his reelection? Let me know.
I’m on Twitter at D Pacman. Follow me there. Follow the show on Twitter at David Pakman
show and we are going to continue talking about this, um, later on today’s program and
throughout the week as well. I anticipate during live calls on the Friday show, Iran
will continue to be a topic of much discussion. Quick break back after this with much more